Call for tender – Determining Paris-Aligned Carbon Budgets and Transition Pathways for Key Circular Economy Product Value Chains

Through the results of this exercise, ECOS intends to propose Paris-aligned carbon budgets for 2030 and 2050 at the product value chain level and to provide the EU with policy recommendations for the most effective interventions to meet its climate commitments.

Scope

The study will leverage the global target of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels along with existing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data to:

• Task 1: Determine Paris-aligned carbon budgets for 2030 and 2050 for selected priority product value chains.
• Task 2: Determine the most effective policy mix to meet carbon budgets for 2030 and 2050 for select priority product value chains.

Task 1: Carbon budgets

The contractor will establish carbon budgets for 2030 and 2050 for each of the selected product value chains. The product value chain budget shall be based on the GHG emissions budget for limiting warming to 1.5 C with a 66% chance as presented by the IPCC’s sixth assessment report. As part of this task, the contractor will also model the expected demand for each sector in 2030 and 2050.

Task 2: Transition pathways

Task 2.1. The contractor shall use GHG emissions data to model the following transition pathways:

• Pathway 1: Business as usual.
• Pathway 2: Policy mix A. Based on existing EU policy for the selected product value chain.
• Pathway 3: Policy mix B. Based on what policies are needed to stay within the chain-specific carbon budget.

The pathways will be developed in close collaboration with ECOS and based on EU current policy
documents (i.e., CEAP), academic literature on state-of-the-art interventions to reduce GHG emissions in the selected sectors, and existing industry net-zero strategies.

Task 2.2. If the results under task 2.1 reveal that pathways 1 and 2 cannot meet their emission budgets, the contractor will factor in how much demand will need to be reduced to meet the carbon budget for that product value chain.

Tasks & Outputs

The contractor will be tasked with delivering a report outlining the complete methodology, sensitivity analyses, and results including graphs and illustrations presenting each product value chain and each pathway. ECOS will use the results to write and publish a detailed ECOS report.
The contractor will assign to ECOS the exclusive right to own and use the outputs of this contract. The authors will be acknowledged in the published ECOS report.

Tender Budget

The budget available for this work is a maximum of €17.000 (excluding VAT), and all other costs will be incurred by the subcontractor.

Timeline

A kick-off meeting will be held with the successful applicant(s) in the month of November, depending on the management team and contractor’s availability.
The contract should be completed by the subcontractor by 31 March 2023.

Tender Preparation

Tenderers are requested to submit a proposal by 29:59 hrs CET on 4th November 2022 to info@ecostandard.org and mariana.lopez@ecostadard.org outlining:

• A brief description of the contractor’s understanding of the analysis demanded.
• A description of the methodology used to determine targets and model the transition pathways.
• The proposed product value chains to be modelled based on data quality and availability and budget.
• A description of the anticipated activities to achieve the desired analysis.
• A description of how close coordination with ECOS will be ensured throughout the project.
• A detailed timeline of the project.
• Budgeting for each element of the work.
• Biographies and time availability of the key staff delivering the work, as well as their areas of expertise